Weekend Report for Monday, September 16
Bottom Line:
The US indices continue to bob and weave but generally maintain a positive tenor. The disparate price action among the indices also continues to dominate, with the SPX, DOW and NYA just slightly below all-time highs and the NDX and RUT underperforming on a relative basis.
Next week we have the much anticipated Fed meeting and expected short-term interest rate cuts and discussion about the future path of Fed policy.
The noise around the November US presidential election is increasing and increasingly has the potential to add to volatility.
It seems likely that one or more of the primary US stock indices is very soon going to make an all-time high. It is almost certain that if that happens next week, there will probably be at least a couple (RUT and NDX) that do not. This will set up a divergence that will have to be resolved. It could portend a significant top in the US stock market in the making, or it could create a catalyst for continued expansion in the indices and all of them getting more in lock-step to the upside.
The solution is to follow the price action and key levels. Just expect volatility next week by at least Wednesday afternoon.
PDF: Weekend Report_2024_09_16
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/TlsScRcbfwk
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SPX
Upper KRA: 5670
Lower KRAs: 5402
The SPX is .52% from a new all-time print high.
NDX
Upper KRA: 19958
Lower KRAs: 18400
DOW
Upper KRA: 41585
Lower KRA: 39993
RUT
Upper KRAs: 2238
Lower KRAs: 2057
New York Composite
This is an index of every stock listed on the NYSE, so it is a broad composite view.
Upper KRA: 19301
Lower KRA: 18499
Internals – VIX
VIX remains relatively elevated. Its recent low is 14.65 and if it closes below that level it is likely at least short-term bullish.
Internals – NYSE Data
NYSE breadth has four consecutive positive closes. It is going to be important to monitor breadth if/when the SPX trades into new ATH territory.
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US 10-yr. Notes
No change: Notes appear ready to test the critical 116’16-117’03 KRA.
US Dollar
No change: Lower lows and highs. Favor shorts.
Gold
Favor longs.
Crude
Crude has reached a critical downside KRA.
Bitcoin
A client has been emailing me about Bitcoin and suggesting it’s “different”. It’s not.
Bitcoin trades in an Auction Market. There is nothing about Bitcoin that mandates it has different “rules” regarding Auction Market behavior.
Bitcoin is holding the critical area near 54000. It needs to establish a series of higher highs and lows for the bullish case. It is currently in the middle of nowhere between intermediate term pivots.
