Weekend Report for Monday, October 7
Bottom Line:
US indices appear to be breaking out to the upside after 11 trade days of chop, churn, whippy and disparate price action with virtually no net change over that timeframe. Notice I said “appear” – as we have learned and relearned over the past two weeks appearances can be deceiving.
If this is an upside breakout the indices should continue immediately and sharply higher.
PDF: Weekend Report_2024_10_07
Video: https://youtu.be/TTIvOYZmAag
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SPX
Upper KRA: 5767
Lower KRAs: 5700; 5674
The SPX may be breaking initiatively up out of an extremely mature, 11-day Auction. If this is the case we should see immediate further strength Monday and into the remainder of the week.
NDX
Upper KRAs: 20273; 20690
Lower KRAs: 19793;19625
DOW
Upper KRA: 42628
Lower KRA: 41965; 41846
RUT
Upper KRAs: 2260; 2301
Lower KRA: 2172
New York Composite
This is an index of every stock listed on the NYSE, so it is a broad composite view.
Upper KRA: 19597
Lower KRA: 19387; 19316
Internals – VIX
VIX remains stubbornly elevated. If this is a “real” upside breakout VIX is likely to drop dramatically next week.
Internals – NYSE Data
The 10-day 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues declined quite sharply relative to the shallow retracement that occurred into the lows last week. New price highs will very likely lead to divergences in these two indicators, but we can’t read much into that – at least initially.
US 10-yr. Notes
Notes experienced a dramatic break in their uptrend. There is no “graceful” trade at the moment.
US Dollar
The Dollar also saw a significant reversal. I’m letting the dust settle.
Gold
Gold is in a minor Balance Area. Honor the direction of the break.
Crude
Another contract reversing an intermediate term trend. Crude tested critical downside levels before reversing.
Bitcoin
A client has been emailing me about Bitcoin and suggesting it’s “different”. It’s not.
Bitcoin trades in an Auction Market. There is nothing about Bitcoin that mandates it has different “rules” regarding Auction Market behavior.
As long as higher highs and lows remain intact favor longs.
