Weekend Report for Monday, October 21
Bottom Line:
From last week and still applies: US indices continue to affirm the bull market. The SPX, DOW and NYA closed in new all-time highs. The other primary indices (NDX, RUT) are lagging, but they also are showing strength.
There is no “resistance” above Friday’s print highs in the SPX and DOW. Downside levels in the indices are all very well defined.
Higher highs and lows are being made in all the indices and in all time frames. If you want to trade against that, well, good luck.
The US is two weeks from an important election. So far, the US indices have avoided the volatility many have been expecting. But….don’t fall asleep. VIX remains stubbornly elevated suggesting market participants are still nervous.
PDF: Weekend Report_2024_10_21
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/JUHq2HyJRTM
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SPX
There is no “resistance” above current levels.
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRAs: 5804
NDX
A close below 20030 before ATH in the NDX would be a cautionary event from a bullish perspective.
Upper KRA: 20691
Lower KRAs: 20030; 19625
DOW
Up and away. So far.
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRAs: 42693; 41818
RUT
Upper KRA: 2301
Lower KRA: 2260
New York Composite
This is an index of every stock listed on the NYSE, so it is a broad composite view.
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRAs: 19669; 19316
Internals – VIX
VIX dropped a bit last week but remains stubbornly elevated.
Internals – NYSE Data
No change to comments made last weekend: The 10-day 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues have begun to expand. There is a lot of upside room before they get to anything close to “extreme”. And no change to this comment from last weekend: “New price highs will very likely lead to divergences in these two indicators, but we can’t read much into that – at least initially.”
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US 10-yr. Notes
No change: Notes experienced a dramatic break in their uptrend. There is no “graceful” trade at the moment.
US Dollar
No change: The Dollar also saw a significant reversal. I’m letting the dust settle.
Gold
Gold continues to make higher highs and lows.
Crude
Crude is whippy between intermediate term levels.
Bitcoin
A client has been emailing me about Bitcoin and suggesting it’s “different”. It’s not.
Bitcoin trades in an Auction Market. There is nothing about Bitcoin that mandates it has different “rules” regarding Auction Market behavior.
Bitcoin is approaching a MAJOR upper KRA. It continues to make higher highs and lows.
