Weekend Report for Monday, November 18, 2024
Bottom Line:
First, it is way too soon to say the bull market is over. That is going to be a loud narrative from the end-of-the-world crowd until we bottom and turn up again.
More importantly, even if the bull market is over we are going to have incredible trading opportunities along the way. Bear markets are easier to trade than bull markets – upcoming seminar, by the way,
The US election week lows are the levels in the indices that must hold or the evidence begins to favor the bear market scenario. Even if those levels break, I think we will see an attempt at a significant rally first, and I think we will see at least a short term low by Tuesday’s close.
PDF: Weekend Report_2024_11_18
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/IggzWbG_–E
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SPX
Upper KRAs: 5915; 5949
Lower KRA: 5787; 5694
NDX
Upper KRAs: 20687; 20894
Lower KRAs: 20223; 19898
DOW
Upper KRAs: 43629; 43759
Lower KRAs: 42833; 42258
RUT Weekly
Upper KRA: 2463
Lower KRA: 2204-2167
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 19900
Lower KRAs: 19468; 19234-19173
Internals – VIX
VIX had a dramatic spike, relatively speaking, but still not in the area of “extreme”.
Internals – NYSE Data
Breadth has been negative 4 consecutive days. That is fairly rare and suggests at least a short-term low, soon.
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US Dollar
The US Dollar has reached an important upside level. It has been vertical up since the beginning of October. I suggest favoring longs, but some balance/retracement near here would be normal.
US 10-yr Notes
No change: Notes are in a very sharp downtrend. A bounce is increasingly likely.
Gold
Gold has declined into a downside KRA. A bounce from here is expected.
Crude
Crude is just above a critical long-term level. It looks like it is soon going to trade through that level.
Bitcoin
