Weekend Report for Monday, April 14, 2025
Bottom Line:
Important levels – both up and down – are clear. Direction not so much. VIX and NYSE data have reached extremes and can be interpreted as potentially bullish, at least short-term.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_04_14
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/_Mf0WsmU2HY
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SPX
Upper KRA: 5475 – 5576
Lower KRAs: 5115; 4834
RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500)
Upper KRA: 165-167
Lower KRA: 158; 150
NDX
Upper KRA: 19225; 20292
Lower KRA: 17785
DOW
Upper KRA: 41180-41628
Lower KRA: 38418; 36601
RUT
Upper KRA: 1870; 1931
Lower KRA: 1788; 1733
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 18482; 18826
Lower KRA: 17439; 16818
VIX is off its recent high but remains relatively elevated. With all the current uncertainty, it’s like VIX remains elevated. It will spike on perceived “bad” tariff news.
NYSE Data – Internals
Breadth is in a potentially bullish pattern.
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US Dollar
The US Dollar is sitting on a critical long-term downside level.
US 10-yr Notes
Notes are more Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride than stocks. I’m staying away, for now.
Gold
All surprises in Gold remain to the upside.
Crude
Crude has broken below a critical downside level.
Bitcoin
No change: Bitcoin is just above a critical intermediate term KRA. It needs to break the lower high-lower low pattern it has been in to restore a bullish case.
