Weekend Report for Monday, April 20, 2026

Bottom Line:

From last weekend’s update:

…Even factoring in a market favorable resolution to the Iran situation the indices, and in particular the SPX and NDX, have rallied at a rate of change to the upside off of the March 30 that is unsustainable and likely to soon result in at least some retracement and a few days of Balance.

I’m wrong quite often, but the above resets the bar.

We have crashed – up. I’ve been “predicting” a more two-sided and by-golly I’m not going to stop now! In all seriousness, what we have seen since the beginning of April and especially all this week is a historic move by so many measures.

Even in relentless rallies you will get at least small pockets of day-to-day balance and intraday rotation. We had very little of that for two weeks, and none of it for the last week. It is increasingly likely this is going to soon resume, if the US stock market rallies for the remainder of the year.

PDF: Weekend Report_2026_04_18
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/vXY2giGYhiI

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Internals

No change:

The NYSE cumulative advance/decline is again trading at ATHs. I have said many times that I do not recall a major bear market beginning when the NYSE cumulative A/D line is at an ATH.

The chart below is updated through Friday’s close.

Breadth has been persistently positive as one would expect for a rally of this magnitude.

VIX

VIX has declined steadily as one would expect. It can easily go lower.

SPX

The only potential “resistance” is Friday’s cash session highs. To the downside, the most recent gap may be tested, quite possibly in our lifetimes.