Weekend Report for Monday, April 21, 2025
Bottom Line:
The US indices now have very well established highs and lows from an intermediate-term perspective. The dramatic drop into the April 6 lows was accompanied by extreme VIX and Breadth readings typically seen at important lows. That resulted in a rally that was just as dramatic and that stopped right where it “should”. Ranges, both day-to-day and intraday, expanded to historically high levels in this process.
The indices began a “digestion” phase with narrowing ranges that continued into the close on Thursday. For those that are Members and are students of the Auction Market Process of Development this was expected and not a surprise.
Now the question is what part of the larger range will be tested first? The daily trend is down, so unless the indices can show strength above the April 10th high I believe the short side, in general, should be favored.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_04_21
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/m7O8zEjAIHc
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SPX
Upper KRA: 5475 – 5576
Lower KRAs: 5221; 4834
RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500)
Upper KRA: 165-167
Lower KRA: 158; 150
NDX
Upper KRA: 19225
Lower KRAs: 17785; 16540
DOW
Upper KRA: 40795
Lower KRA: 38418; 36601
RUT
Upper KRA: 1931
Lower KRA: 1838; 1733
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 18614
Lower KRA: 18112; 16818
No Change – VIX is off its recent high but remains relatively elevated. With all the current uncertainty, it’s like VIX remains elevated. It will spike on perceived “bad” tariff news.
NYSE Data – Internals
Nothing helpful at this time.
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US Dollar
The US Dollar is sitting on a critical long-term downside level.
US 10-yr Notes
Between levels.
Gold
All surprises in Gold remain to the upside. Starting to look like a blow-off short-term, but the long-term trend is definitively higher.
Crude
Crude has left a buying tail from a critical level.
Bitcoin
No change: Bitcoin is just above a critical intermediate term KRA. It needs to break the lower high-lower low pattern it has been in to restore a bullish case.
