Weekend Report for Monday, April 28, 2025
Bottom Line:
The SPX, NDX, RUT, NYA and RSP have all closed above their respective April 9 highs. This is a bullish signal. The DOW is lagging and has not closed above its April 9 high, but under a bullish scenario it will, soon.
A strong case can be made for a sustained bull trend in progress that will carry the indices (some, at least) to new highs. If a bull trend has resumed, ranges will decrease, retracements will be very shallow and VIX will continue to drop. Also, NYSE net breadth readings will establish much higher lows than those we have seen recently.
A close below the 4/21 lows by all four of the primary US indices negates the bullish scenario.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_04_28
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/aVaIxMijHag
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SPX
Upper KRA: 5670
Lower KRAs: 5357-5291
The SPX traded -21.35% from bull market high to low tick on 4/7. This decline was accompanied by several extreme technical readings that correlate very highly with important market lows.
It’s quite possible the decline was “simply” a correction in an on-going bull market and we will relatively soon see new all-time highs in the SPX. The SPX is already 14.44% off the 4/7 low and is 11.19% from Friday’s close to a news all-time high.
The 14.44% rise of the low has occurred in thirteen trade days. Unless China is soon announced as the 51st state it is very unlikely the current rate of change to the upside will continue.
The SPX closed in an elevator shaft to the upside on Friday and the next level from an Auction Market perspective is 5671, 2.63% higher from Friday’s close. I am NOT suggesting the SPX will trade straight there, but simply pointing out the next obvious upper level not derived from magic.
RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500)
Upper KRA: 170-172
Lower KRA: 165-163
NDX
Upper KRA: 19688-19820; 20292
Lower KRAs: 18685-18412
DOW
Upper KRA: 40791; 41167-41666
Lower KRA: 39394-39196
The DOW is lagging but if we are in a bull trend it is going to very quickly catch up.
RUT
Upper KRA: 1931
Lower KRA: 1838; 1733
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 19563
Lower KRA: 18455
The NYA is only 7.48% from a new all-time high.
VIX will soon drop to 20 or below if we have resumed a bull trend.
NYSE Data – Internals
In a bear market this suggests we are very near a significant top. However…..
….if we are in a bull trend this is what is likely to occur.
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US Dollar
The US Dollar is testing its breakdown level.
US 10-yr Notes
The 110’12 level is critical; Notes have been unable to sustain a move below it.
Gold
Gold has had an incredible move. Some retracement is not a surprise. See the Special Report I posted about a week ago.
Crude
Crude is between important levels.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has re-established its uptrend. 74563 is a critical downside level.
