Weekend Report for Monday, April 6, 2026
Bottom Line:
From last weekend’s Report:
It’s possible we’ve seen The Low. My guess is maybe a 60% chance?? No doubt last week’s lows in the indices are important levels to watch in the coming week.
The US stock indices rallied very strongly at the end of the week, forming V bottoms. This is typical of important lows. We have to see more trade to increase our confidence in the idea that was the low that will hold prior to seeing new ATHs.
To remind: Bear market/trends also contain the strongest rallies. However, those rallies typically fail within a few days. Let’s see how things shake out next week.
PDF: Weekend Report_2026_04_03
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/VoBn3OoQqg8
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Internals
VIX has dropped four consecutive days. This is a bullish sign.
SPX
The SPX closed Friday in a major confluence of levels. A strong break above this area would be very bullish and signal a low is in place and we will see new ATHs before any further significant downside trade occurs.
NDX
The NDX is in a similar position as the SPX.
DOW
Same…
NYA
It is notable that the NYA is considerably above its 200 day MA.
RSP
Same comments as for NYA…
RUT
The RUT is in a similar position as the NYA and RSP.
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US Dollar – Weekly
Balance, but at its upper extreme. This level has been tested several times. A close above this level is bullish.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
No change: Notes are trending lower. There is no evidence of a low of significance, yet.
Gold
From last weekend’s Update: Gold has had a dramatic drop and is now in a Balance Area. The direction of the break will be interesting.
4575 is now the key downside level.
Crude – Weekly
No change:
What crude does on a day-to-day basis is a complete guess and entirely dependent on the situation with Iran.
Bitcoin
No change: BTC is in a Balance Area. It is potentially quite bearish that it appears to have failed in an attempt at an upside breakout.
