Weekend Report for Monday, April 7, 2025
SPECIAL Sunday evening (6:30 PM, EST) WEBINAR (it will be recorded):
Trading Strategies and Tactics in Volatile Markets
If we have entered a bear market there are specific strategies and tactics that can be used to increase your probability of success. This information could not be more timely as we have just completed one of the most extreme and wide range down weeks in years. This webinar has IMMEDIATE relevance.
This is a MEMBER webinar and free to members.
If you would like to sign up for a Membership you can do so here.
A Membership is 97.00/month, cancel at anytime but no partial refunds.
The webinar will be recorded and the recording will be sent to all registrants.
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Bottom Line:
“It’s different this time!”
No, it’s not: 1987 (market crash), 1990 (Iraq war), 1998 (Russian financial crises and collapse of LTCM), 2000 (dot com bubble burst), 2007 (mortgage leverage crash), 2020 (covid crash).
The only thing that’s truly different is the attribution for the current price action. Auction Market Principles of development are the same. We are in downside vertical development. The market is searching for “Value”. “Value” will be determined by the actions of buyers and sellers. The current uncertainty will dissipate and we will see ranges narrow and less extreme verticality. It is inevitable, even if we are now in a bear market.
Time-wise the US indices are close to a short-term low. Whatever low precedes the inevitable face-ripping rally is likely to be exceeded to the downside in a more substantial bottoming process. This will very likely include divergences among the indices, and between price levels and market internals like VIX and NYSE data.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_04_07
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/mi-AUO0vRhE
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SPX
Upper KRA: TBD – A complete guess at this point, but we’re getting closer and closer to a fierce rally, even if it is short-lived.
Lower KRA: 4950; 4682 – next downside KRAs from an Auction Market perspective, but again, a guess.
SPX 30m
This perspective will be invaluable in this environment. Detailed discussion in Sunday evening’s Strategy/Tactics webinar.
RSP Weekly (Equal Weight S&P 500)
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 153
NDX
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 16822
DOW
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 37701
RUT
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 1633
New York Composite
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 16850
VIX last traded at 45 or above during the Covid crash, reaching that level on March 9, 2020. It peaked at 82.45 on March 16, 2020. The final price low in the SPX occurred on March 23, 2020.
NYSE Data – Internals
NYSE closing breadth registered a -2000 close on Friday (-2124). The 10-day MA of NYSE issues is approaching “extreme”. There is not a “bell-ringing” signal from this perspective at present.
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US Dollar
Anything financial is going to have a higher than normal tendency toward “randomness” until things settle down with the tariff situation.
US 10-yr Notes
Same comments as above.
Gold
Gold appears to have formed at least a short-term high.
Crude
Crude is in the area of a critical downside level. Some retracement from near current levels would not be a surprise, but in general favor shorts against 67.21.
Bitcoin
No change: Bitcoin is just above a critical intermediate term KRA. It needs to break the lower high-lower low pattern it has been in to restore a bullish case.
