Weekend Report for Monday, August 11

Weekend Report for Monday, August 11, 2025

Bottom Line:

The NDX closed at another all-time high. The SPX was relatively close to a new ATH, but the remainder of the other US trading indices underperformed, and some rather significantly.

The current growing divergence between the NDX and the rest of the US stock market is an issue that is closer and closer to being resolved; it may be resolved with a dramatic reversal in the NDX, even if it is not “the” top of the bull market, or the other indices begin to catch up in performance.

I realize this is not a unique observation, but it is very relevant and must be monitored.

NYSE market internals are also suggesting a tipping point and an impending sharp move.

The SPX and NDX have been panic bid since the April low. Let something objective occur that signals a turn.

It is simple but undeniably true: the initial signal a top of relative importance is in place is when the most recent higher low in a given timeframe is taken out. On the daily charts, the earliest signal is when the index (whichever one/all) closes below the previous day’s low.

PDF: Weekend Report_2025_08_10
VIDEO:

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SPX Intermediate-term Profile

The extreme directional verticality of the second quarter has truncated (as expected and previously forecast) into an overlapping whipfest.

SPX Daily

Upper KRA: 6428
Lower KRAs: 6339

The SPX closed below a new ATH by a fraction.

RSP

Upper KRAs: 184.50
Lower KRA: 182

The equal weight S&P is in a well-defined Balance Area.

NDX:

Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 23220

Dead vertical off the August 1 spike low. The NDX should become more two-sided very soon. I’m not necessarily “predicting” a top, just at a minimum a slowing of the current rate of change.

DOW:

Upper KRA: 44505
Lower KRA: 43125

The DOW is in balance bordered by a buying tail and selling tail.

RUT

Upper KRA: 2244; 2284
Lower KRA: 2202; 2142

New York Composite

Upper KRA: 20461
Lower KRAs: 20403

The NYA isn’t quite as pristinely coiled as the DOW and RUT, but similar.

Internals

The 10-day and 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues are currently reflecting a diminishing upside momentum in the broader market. Breadth has been in an extremely narrow channel for the past four days.

This is going to resolve in very sharp price movement, very soon.

The 30m SPX/breadth chart clearly shows how narrow breadth has been for the past four days. Also, there is a HUGE divergence between the momentum peak of price/breadth and recent trade as price has moved higher and breadth has traded in a much lower band.

Now, this can result in a bullish resolution if breadth expands, but it is going to get resolved one way or another.

This is also consistent with the current Balance Areas in the DOW, RUT and RSP.