Weekend Report for Monday, August 18

Weekend Report for Monday, August 18, 2025

Bottom Line:

The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line continues to make new all-time highs, confirming the bull market. By no means does this preclude bouts of what many (I) consider way overdue downside volatility, but I am unaware of any bull market ending with the NYSE cumulative A/D line at ATHs.

Unless it is very different this time, this implies at least a few months of more upside potential, and it could be substantial, before a true bear begins.A “bear trend” is a market that has a downside bias for many months. The dip and rips we have been seeing will transition into dip and failed rips. We are not seeing that, yet.

There is very disparate price action among the indices. It could be due to simply a broadening market. It could be a sign of a longer-term top forming, like the 2000 top that took many months. It is not a good time to be making the assumption all the indices are going to move up or down in lock-step.

PDF: Weekend Report_2025_08_18
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/dHbIFGmpj64

_________________________________________________________________________

SPX Intermediate-term Profile

The August Auction already has a wide distribution (range). It is lacking development.

The three-day Auction (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday) in the SPX is quite mature. In general, you probably want to be short below about 6455 and long above it.

SPX Daily

Upper KRA: 6481
Lower KRAs: 6438

RSP

Upper KRAs: 188
Lower KRA: 185

NDX:

Upper KRA: 23969
Lower KRA: 23518

DOW:

Upper KRA: 45203
Lower KRA: 44570-44455

Interesting that the DOW spiked to, but could close at an ATH, then reversed sharply. This is a perfect example of the confusing price action among the indices at present.