Weekend Report for Monday, August 4, 2025
Bottom Line:
From last weekend’s update:
This is a market that is increasingly overdue for some retracement. It is likely to be sudden, but it is a dangerous game to just go short “hoping”. Let the market give an objective signal – like taking out a higher low in a lower timeframe before shorting.
We got the “sudden” decline, and technicals are nowhere close to extremes leaving the door open for more downside. However, this is a market that has been historically resilient so be careful about pressing the short side. If tis decline is “real”, there will likely be an opportunity on the short side after an initial rally attempt.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_08_04
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/J54Na9qTU1k
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SPX Intermediate-term Profile
The potential schematic below is realistic IF we have seen a top of relative importance.
SPX Daily
Upper KRA: 6287
Lower KRAs: 6201-6171
The SPX traded right to the upper cusp of a critical downside KRA. Early next week will be interesting.
RSP
Upper KRAs: 183
Lower KRA: 176
The equal weight S&P actually had a potentially bullish close on Friday, closing in the upper quarter of its range after the dramatic gap down and lower run. Not sure how this fits with an overall bearish scenario.
NDX:
Upper KRA: 22981
Lower KRA: 22674-22573
The NDX got crushed Thursday and Friday but this was overdue. It had gotten to the “silly” stage. It closed Friday right at its critical downside intermediate-term level.
DOW:
Upper KRAs: 43786
Lower KRA: 43125
RUT
Upper KRA: 2211
Lower KRA: 2087
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 20461
Lower KRAs: 20077
The NYA is down almost 4%, and has closed lower 5 consecutive days. This is extreme.
Internals
The 10-day and 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues are not yet at downside extremes
VIX
VIX spiked higher last week but did not reach the levels seen at the lesser declines of last May and last June.
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US Dollar – Weekly
No change. The US dollar appears to be breaking down in a major way.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
Notes had a big move last week and closed on their highs. They are due to trend.
Gold
Consider favoring longs against 3331.
Crude – Weekly
Crude is in a well-defined Balance Area.
Bitcoin
BTC needs to close above 117287 to restore the immediately bullish trend.
