Weekend Report for Monday, December 15, 2025
Bottom Line:
Broader indices made ATHs last week, as did the DOW. The SPX and NDX appear to be “victims” of a rotational process.
I don’t think it is likely we are seeing THE top in the US stock market. The NYSE cumulative AD line continues to confirm the rally and made new all-time highs on Thursday. The NYSE cumulative AD line continues to make new ATHs, but it has flattened out considerably over the past few months – certainly something to keep an eye on.
All the indices have been on a historic ramp off the April low. The top on Friday was preceded by another relentless ramp off the minor low that occurred on November 21. Some retracement/digestion of that rally was due. It may not quite be over, but further retracement may set up the expected seasonal rally that typically begins around the last week of December.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_12_14
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/fh–kVvLWqQ
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SPX
The December Auction is so far quite narrow. It is highly likely to extend.
The SPX is still inside its current intermediate-term Auction. Friday’s low is critical.
Upper KRA: 6901
Lower KRA: 6784-6765
The SPX was “due” for some retracement.
NDX
Ideally under an end of the year bullish assumption the NDX will hold the HVN below at 24891-24565.
Upper KRA: 25773-25892
Lower KRA: 25399-25345; 25084-25007
DOW
Upper KRA: 48708
Lower KRA: 47453
NYA
Upper KRA: 22113
Lower KRA: 21811
RSP
Upper KRA: 195
Lower KRA: 190
RUT
Upper KRA: 2594
Lower KRA: 2513
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line
The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues closed at its highest level since early July, but it has flattened out since September – something to watch.
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US Dollar – Weekly
The Dollar has broken its uptrend.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
Notes are in a similar position as the US Dollar.
Gold
Gold has stair-stepped higher and tested its October highs on Friday. This is a major short-term inflection point.
Crude – Weekly
Weekly lower lows and highs.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has made higher highs and lows since the beginning of 2023. A trade below 74519 would break that trend.
