Weekend Report for Monday, December 16, 2024
Bottom Line:
The NDX has again caught fire and the 7 stocks or so that drive it are once again being panic bid. The SPX is benefitting from some of the same mania. The RUT, DOW and NYA are the opposite of what we see in the SPX and NDX and are showing increasing weakness. The disparity between these two groups continues to grow.
The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues is near a “buy” level, adding more confusion to the mix.
We have the Fed circus next week and this could be the catalyst that brings things back into synch, one way or another.
PDF: Weekend Report_2024_12_16
Video: https://youtu.be/x2Z03EQsC9Y
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SPX
Upper KRA: 6100
Lower KRA: 5851; 5689
NDX
Upper KRA: 21891
Lower KRA: 20305; 19895
DOW
Upper KRA: 45096
Lower KRAs: 42898; 41647
RUT
Upper KRA: 2466
Lower KRA: 2282; 2196
Weekly Indices
The trend remains up, but the divergences among the indices on the weekly (and daily) time frames are significant.
Daily Indices
New York Composite
I expect at least a short-term low in the NYA very soon.
Upper KRA: 20333
Lower KRAs: 19566
Internals – VIX
A low and/or dropping VIX is bullish.
Internals – NYSE Data
The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues is near a “buy” level. This does by no means imply price can’t spike sharply lower, but if that were to occur we will find out quickly whether or not we have put in a top of significance.
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US Dollar
No change: The Dollar had a strong vertical up move so some retracement is not a surprise. In general I would continue to favor longs.
US 10-yr Notes
No change: The bounce in Notes was expected. Watch 111’21-112’10 for potential resistance.
Gold
No change: Between important levels of two degrees.
Crude
No change: 72.97 is a critical upside level in Crude. Crude is having trouble generating any upside traction. Consider favoring shorts.
Bitcoin
No change: The area near 75,000 is the critical downside KRA. BTC is making higher highs and lows within a strong uptrend.
