Weekend Report for Monday, February 9, 2026
Bottom Line:
The RSP (equal weight S&P), NYA and DOW are all at new ATHs and closed strongly higher on Friday. The RUT, and in particular the NDX and SPX closed strongly higher, but not in new ATH ground.
The Great Rotation continues. In strong bull markets ALL of the indices will more or less trade in new ATHs within a few days of each other.
Bear market tops typically form over weeks or months when divergences grow among the indices and relative outperformance widens. If this bull has much further to run the NDX and SPX should soon reach new ATHs.
PDF: Weekend Report_2026_02_07
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/HmEnILPHua0
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SPX
No change: The SPX is incredibly whippy, going net nowhere.
NDX
The NDX closed strongly on Friday after three rather dramatic down days but continues to dramatically underperform all the other primary US indices. The Bull Market depends on the NDX eventually catching up.
A close below last week’s low at 24454 is bearish.
DOW
The DOW dramatically flipped from potentially quite bearish to unequivocally bullish. The upside rate of change seen on Friday is unsustainable and at least a short-term top is likely by Wednesday, but as long as Friday’s range is not deeply retraced the intermediate term trend is up.
NYA
The NYA is in a similar position as the DOW.
RSP
RSP in a similar position as the NYA and DOW.
RUT
Friday’s low is important.
Internals
The NYSE cumulative A/D line erased its slight divergence from a week ago. It is very unlikely a top of significance will form prior to a significant divergence between the NYSE A/D line and the majority of US indices.
Breadth expanded to its largest one-day close in over two months.
VIX dropped on Friday but remains relatively elevated. If this is the start of a multi-week uptrend VIX should begin to drop rather dramatically.
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US Dollar – Weekly
No change: The Dollar dipped below 96 and immediately bungee jumped back above it. That is obviously an extremely key level that for now has been defended by Big Money.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
Testing a key upside level.
Gold
Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride. Gold is testing its bungee jump back to the 50% retracement area.
SILVER
Silver had a huge move up on Friday. I think we’ll see more upside and would generally favor longs on retracements as long as Friday’s low is not exceeded.
Crude – Weekly
A potential long-term low may have formed.
Bitcoin
From last weekend’s Report: BTC is at the edge of the abyss. It needs to close above 91000 to give hope for a bullish assumption.
Friday saw a dramatic rally but BTC has a LOT of work to do to restore a bullish case.
