Weekend Report for Monday, January 27, 2025
Bottom Line:
The week gave us a new all-time high in the SPX, but as of now it stands along. All other US indices are lagging, for now. IF we are still in a bull market this will (must) change and we will see most, if not all, of the US indices also follow through to new highs.
The short-term picture clouds the intermediate term picture at the moment because the short-term price action is extended, particularly in the SPX, and there are concerning divergences.
A retracement prior to much further rally is probable.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_01_27
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/ETMz9yZPcXo
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SPX
Upper KRA: 6128
Lower KRA: 6073-6048
The SPX has been vertical since the 1/13 low. It closed at an ATH on Friday. Balance that includes some retracement is increasingly likely.
NDX
Upper KRA: 21949; 22161
Lower KRA: 21707-21561
The NDX has not followed through to a new ATH. It may or may not prior to some Balance/retracement.
DOW
Upper KRA: 44574; 45081
Lower KRAs: ? – total guess
Same comments as for NDX.
RUT
Upper KRA: 2322
Lower KRA: 2254-2221
It is very doubtful we see new ATH prior to Balance/retracement in the other indices.
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 20342; 20342
Lower KRAs: ? – total guess
Similar position as DOW and NDX.
Internals – VIX
VIX continues to hover at a relatively high level.
Internals – NYSE Data
NYSE breadth has been positive 8/9 days. The 5-day MA of NYSE advancing issues reached an upper extreme and has rolled over. The 10-day has some room, but my guess is we see a retracement prior to the 10-day reaching upper extreme levels.
Cumulative NYSE Adv/Decl
The cumulative NYSE adv/decl line is diverging against the higher highs in the SPX (SPY is shown), more evidence suggesting caution.
SPX 30m and Breadth
There are significant divergences short-term, too.
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US Dollar
Between critical intermediate-term levels.
US 10-yr Notes
In general I would continue to favor shorts.
Gold
Watch carefully what happens here near gold’s ATH. This is a major inflection point. The trend is up, but a double top, even if it’s only short-term, is possible.
Crude
Crude sold off sharply. I don’t have a strong opinion in the short-term.
Bitcoin
