Weekend Report for Monday, January 6, 2025
Bottom Line:
The US indices have very clear critical downside levels. If the primary US indices all close below those levels it dramatically increases the probability that a bear market may have begun.
The current rally is important. The recent lows were formed accompanied by high VIX readings as well as extreme downside readings in the 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues. In a bull market these conditions typically mark important intermediate term lows.
Next week we should begin to see an increase in volume and maybe a bit more “trustworthy” market.
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SPX
Upper KRA: 6041-6052
Lower KRA: 5853-5828
NDX
Upper KRA: 19394
Lower KRA: 18861
DOW
Upper KRA: 43372
Lower KRAs: 42138; 41633
RUT Weekly
Upper KRA: 2285
Lower KRA: 2195-2165
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 19394
Lower KRAs: 18861
Internals – VIX
VIX should begin to drop under a bullish scenario.
Internals – NYSE Data
Internals suggest an important low could be in place.
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US Dollar
Favor longs.
US 10-yr Notes
Between critical levels.
Gold
No change: Between important levels of two degrees.
Crude
Crude thoroughly tested recent downside levels. There appears to be a bullish sequence of higher highs and lows in place.
Bitcoin
BTC is in a small Balance Area.
