Weekend Report for Monday, July 14, 2025
Bottom Line:
The extraordinary rally off the April lows continues. All primary US stock indices with the exception of the Russell 2000 continue to trade in, or near, ATHs.
The NYSE advance/decline line is confirming the rally, following through with the indices to ATHs. While this does not preclude a short-term correct, which is increasingly overdue, it does strongly suggest any correction should lead to new ATHs.
This is discussed in detail in the video.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_07_13
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/FKr1n8oD_9I
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SPX Intermediate-term Profile
SPX Daily
Upper KRA: 6292
Lower KRAs: 6236; 6200
RSP Weekly
Upper KRAs: 188
Lower KRA: 180; 176
NDX:
Upper KRA: 22915
Lower KRA: 22688; 22585
DOW:
Upper KRAs: 44885; 45072
Lower KRA: 44141; 43833
RUT
Upper KRA: 2276
Lower KRA: 2204
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 20744
Lower KRAs: 20439
Internals
The chart that includes the 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues suggest caution, at a minimum. The 5-day has rolled over and when the 10-day is at the level that it currently sits, upside price action if it does continue tends to be “labored”.
See the details on this in last weekend’s written report AND video!
VIX
VIX dropped rather dramatically Wednesday and Thursday, then spiked up on Friday. While not a bell-ringing sell, it merits notice.
US Dollar – Weekly
No change. The US dollar appears to be breaking down in a major way.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
There is no edge in Notes right now.
Gold
The long-term uptrend is intact.
Crude – Weekly
Crude is between intermediate-term levels.
Bitcoin
The bull trend is firmly intact. 100747 is an important downside short-term level.
