Weekend Report for Monday, July 20, 2025
Bottom Line:
More new ATHs in the SPX and NDX, but momentum is waning. Earnings season really starts to pick up next week. That could be a catalyst for more FOMO or a relatively significant retracement.
Levels are very well-defined.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_07_20
VIDEO:
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SPX Intermediate-term Profile
Even if the path of development continues higher, it is highly unlikely to come close to the rate of change of the 2nd quarter.
SPX Daily
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRAs: 6255; 6200
RSP Weekly
Upper KRAs: 188
Lower KRA: 180; 176
NDX:
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 22677; 21523
DOW:
Upper KRAs: 44885; 45072
Lower KRA: 44176; 43759
RUT
Upper KRA: 2276
Lower KRA: 2225
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 20744
Lower KRAs: 20439
Internals
The NYSE cumulative A/D line is diverging, ever so slightly, against recent higher highs.
The 10-day and 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues display a dramatic drop in upside momentum. If the indices are going higher breadth HAS to begin to expand.
The short-term perspective of price/breadth is consistent with the longer-term perspectives.
VIX
VIX has been unable to continue to drop, so far. This is potentially bearish.
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US Dollar – Weekly
No change. The US dollar appears to be breaking down in a major way.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
There is no edge in Notes right now.
Gold
Gold is in a tight Balance Area at the mid-point of several swings. Consider going with the break.
Crude – Weekly
Crude is in a similar position as gold.
Bitcoin
The bull trend is firmly intact. 100747 is an important downside short-term level.
