Weekend Report for Monday, July 26
As we headed to the new trading week, there is a bullish case and a bearish case for the immediate path forward in the U.S. stock indices. The SPX and the NDX are in very well-defined market conditions, both of which are forecasting a sharp move. However, the inflection points in which the SPX and NDX find themselves are different types inflection points. The Russell and the Dow are also at major inflection points while the New York Composite and equal-weight S&P are more disparate. Let’s take a look.
PDF: Weekend Report_2026_07_26
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/TsgXNlBSbY0
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Auction Market / Market Profile SPX
The short-term auctions in the SPX have a very definitive pattern of migrating to lower and lower VALUE.
SPX Daily
The SPX closed Friday very near the midpoint of the multi-month auction currently in progress. It is at a major inflection point from an Auction Market perspective. The NDX, as you will see below, is also at a major inflection point but as opposed to being at the midpoint of its balance area, it is at the lower extreme of its balance area. A close above 7497 restores a potentially bullish scenario.
NDX Daily
The NDX has closed below the low extreme of its multi-month balance area and until proven otherwise this clearly appears to be an attempt at an Initiative break, specifically a trend to the downside, that could very easily accelerate from here. The important level back to the upside is around 28733. A close above that area would cloud the immediate bearish picture.
DOW
RUT
The Russell is also at a major inflection point. As we head into the new week, we can expect a very sharp move, either with acceleration lower or a very sharp reversal higher. The Russell is not going to spend a lot of time trading near its Friday close.
NYA
The current structure in the New York composite is not nearly as bearish as some of the other indices. It is not far from a new all-time high close and we have to make note that it is the broadest of all the indices, being composed of all NYSE listed equities.
RSP
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US Dollar Weekly
US 10-yr Notes Weekly
Gold Weekly
Gold is at the midpoint of its high-volume node of a multi-week Balance Area. This is a major inflection point and gold is going to move sharply away from this area very soon.
Crude Daily
