Weekend Report for Monday, July 07, 2025
Bottom Line:
From last weekend’s update and nothing has changed:
The SPX, NDX, NYA and NASDAQ Composite (COMP) all closed at new ATHs on Friday.
The DOW, RUT and RSP are lagging to varying degrees.
The NYSE A/D line closed at an ATH. This typically implies that the broad US indices are likely to be generally higher for months. This DOES NOT preclude some sort of relatively deep and/or sharp correction at some point. This would actually be a typical path prior to a more meaningful top.
In the short intermediate-term (4-6 weeks), current momentum is very strong but price action is becoming increasingly stretched. It is VERY unlikely the third quarter auction will be as relentlessly one-sided as the quarter that just ended.
I think we will see at least a short-term top early next week.
PDF:Weekend Report_2025_07_06
VIDEO:
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SPX Intermediate-term Profile
The second quarter Auction is complete, and it was an epic one.
Technically the July Auction began at 6178, but from an Auction Market perspective an Auction began 9 trade days ago at about 5943. It is currently deep into Step 1.
SPX Daily
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRAs: 6248-6226; 6173
RSP Weekly
Upper KRAs: 188
Lower KRA: 180; 176
NDX:
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 22737-22646; 22376
DOW:
Upper KRAs: 45073
Lower KRA: 44361; 43833
RUT
Upper KRA: 2328
Lower KRA: 2087
New York Composite
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRAs: 20595; 20470
NYSE Data – Cumulative NYSE A/D Line
The NYSE A/D line continues to make new ATHs, confirming the larger degree bull trend. This makes it very probable that any retracement that occurs will be followed by new ATHs, and it’s quite realistic to believe the bull has many more months to run.
Internals
The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues has reached the lower cusp of an upper extreme. As I am always careful to point out when analyzing this slice of information, context is everything. I cover this in detail in the video, but the gist of it is that it is likely the current ramp will slow its rate of change, and also likely that within the next few days we see at least a minor retracement that includes a few days of Balance.
VIX
VIX has held up quite stubbornly considering the US indices have basically been vertical up for the past 9 trade days. Notice the general level of VIX during the highs of late 2024 and now.
This is not a sell signal. It is additional information that is suggesting we might be close to at least a short-term top.
Price must confirm ANY buy/signal.
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US Dollar – Weekly
No change. The US dollar appears to be breaking down in a major way.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
There is no edge in Notes right now.
Gold
The long-term uptrend is intact.
Crude – Weekly
Crude broke its intermediate-term downtrend in dramatic fashion. The downside level to watch is 65.24.
Bitcoin
The bull trend is firmly intact. 100747 is an important downside short-term level.
