Weekend Report for Monday, June 16, 2025
Bottom Line:
The indices were extremely extended to the upside coming into Friday. Retracements had been shallow and few. The drop that began on Friday, so far, is quite shallow. However, I will not at all be surprised if it isn’t the beginning of a deeper and more protracted decline.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_06_16
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/ID1JjrxVXJs
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This was posted in the Weekend Update a month ago:
SPX Profile
Below is a profile view of the SPX. Each profile unit is one calendar quarter; each slot, or letter, is one week. It provides an intermediate term perspective of the auction process. The profile perspective can be incredibly useful in identifying the market condition of a given timeframe. The Auction Market Process of development is consistent and immutable across all time frames.
The profile graph is not predictive, per se, but at times it can help significantly with the probabilities of what a market may do. I believe the profile graph of the SPX in this intermediate term perspective is in that position now.
The current intermediate term auction has traded into the HVN (High Volume Node) of the previous same time frame auction. This alone wouldn’t be nearly as significant if it were not coupled with the current auction being so clearly extended.
The SPX could certainly become even more extended, but based on this perspective I will not be pressing the long side of this market except for very special intraday situations.
My best guess is we will now see a path of development similar to the outline below.
SPX
Upper KRA: 6059
Lower KRAs: 5935-5921; 5843
RSP
Upper KRAs: 180
Lower KRA: 176; 174
NDX:
Upper KRAs: 22041
Lower KRA: 21466; 21033
DOW:
Upper KRAs: 43129
Lower KRA: 41808; 41245
RUT
Upper KRA: 2172
Lower KRA: 2116; 2086
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 20199
Lower KRAs: 19821; 19592
VIX rose dramatically, but is not close to “extreme”.
NYSE Data – Internals
The 10-day and 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues have rolled over following weeks of divergence.
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US Dollar – Weekly
No change. The US dollar appears to be breaking down in a major way.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
Notes are near the mid-point of a multi-year Balance Area, and are coiled in a shorter-term Balance Area.
Gold
The long-term uptrend is intact.
Crude – Weekly
From last weekend’s report. A close above 65.24 could be a bullish catalyst.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin may be getting a bit extended short-term, but the bull trend is firmly intact.
