Weekend Report for Monday, June 2, 2025

Weekend Report for Monday, June 2, 2025

Bottom Line:

Time regulates price. This is a statement from one of Stedlmayer’s early works on Market Profile.

The ramp from the 4/21 low to the 5/12 high took 15 trade days and carried 14.58% in the SPX and 18.59% in the NDX.

Net changes in the primary US indices since 5/12 (13 trade days).

SPX: .43%

NDX: .63%

DOW: .33%

RUT: -1.24%

The primary indices are near their mid-May highs and are in Balance. They are likely to very soon begin a trend that is likely to last at least several days, and quite possibly several weeks.

PDF:Weekend Report_2025_06_02
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/kYnNUlhrzcc

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SPX Profile

Market Profile is sort of a puzzle. You can have a decent idea of how it’s going to turn out, but there are a few variations and the “pieces” can be deceiving at times.

Please review the discussions of the SPX profile that began in the weekend report for 5/19 and have continued since. Market Development since the report of 5/19 has followed the posited template almost perfectly.

Below are the individual day profiles of the SPX since 5/12. Since that date the SPX (and other indices have been heavily rotational both day-to-day and intraday.

The breakout of the 5/27-5/30 Auction is probably the key to the next directional trend of several days or more.

May ended as a “double-distribution” Auction, with 5/12-5/30 as the second distribution.

Below is the weekly profile view that gives an intermediate-term perspective. It has followed the schematic suggested a couple of weeks ago of becoming heavily rotational.

The last couple of weeks have formed Balance so if the current Balance breaks higher it will add to the unusual verticality of the Auction in this timeframe.

SPX

Upper KRAs: 5971; 6147
Lower KRAs: 5839; 5765

RSP

Upper KRAs: 178; 180
Lower KRAs: 175; 173

NDX:

Upper KRA: 21612
Lower KRAs: 20910

DOW:

Upper KRAs: 42448; 42843
Lower KRAs: 41824; 41344

RUT

Upper KRA: 2116
Lower KRA: 2010

New York Composite

Upper KRAs: 19836; 19994
Lower KRAs: 19606; 19390

VIX will break up or down with price. There is nothing helpful from this perspective at this time.

NYSE Data – Internals

The 10-day and 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues are simply reflecting the chop and churn of recent price action. There is nothing helpful here at the moment.