Weekend Report for Monday, June 30

Weekend Report for Monday, June 30, 2025

Bottom Line:

From last weekend’s update:

The US indices have either closed just below critical KRAs or are just above critical KRAs. These are significant inflection points from where sharp moves almost always occur.

The SPX, NDX, NYA and NASDAQ Composite (COMP) all closed at new ATHs on Friday.

The DOW, RUT and RSP are lagging to varying degrees.

The NYSE A/D line closed at an ATH. This typically implies that the broad US indices are likely to be generally higher for months. This DOES NOT preclude some sort of relatively deep and/or sharp correction at some point. This would actually be a typical path prior to a more meaningful top.

In the short intermediate-term (4-6 weeks), current momentum is very strong but price action is becoming increasingly stretched. It is VERY unlikely the third quarter auction will be as relentlessly one-sided as the quarter that just ended.

PDF: Weekend Report_2025_06_30
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/JwVDgOifvmI

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SPX Intermediate-term Profile

The second quarter Auction is complete, and it was an epic one.

July begins the third quarter Auction. It is highly unlikely to be as one-sided as the second quarter Auction.

SPX Weekly

Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRAs: 5941; 5760

SPX Daily

The SPX is only up about 5% for the year, however it is up almost 28% since the April low.

I have highlighted the legs in the rally and they range from about 5% to 13.35% before minor corrections. Because I do not expect to see the current rate of change to the upside continue, I do not believe we will see this leg reach into the 6700’s before at least a minor 2-3% retracement.

RSP Weekly

Upper KRAs: 183; 189
Lower KRA: 176; 173

NDX:

Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 22041; 21855

DOW:

Upper KRAs: 45097
Lower KRA: 42800; 42581

RUT Weekly

Upper KRA: 2328
Lower KRA: 2087; 2009

New York Composite

Upper KRA: 20437
Lower KRAs: 20077; 19759

NYSE Data – Internals

The NYSE A/D line continues to make new ATHs, confirming the larger degree bull trend. This makes it very probable that any retracement that occurs will be followed by new ATHs, and its quite realistic to believe the bull has many more months to run.

The MAs and breadth work we keep is giving a heads-up, short-term. There is a significant divergence forming between price and the 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues. This is NOT a blaring sell signal and the current divergence could easily drag out for weeks before resulting in any sort of a retracement.

Below are significant market tops and the condition of both the cumulative A/D line and breadth at the time of the top. There is a single consistent correlation, but every single high did contain at least a minor divergence between internal measures.

2/18/25 Top