Weekend Report for Monday, March 16

Weekend Report for Monday, March 16, 2026

Bottom Line:

US indices are all perched right at critical downside levels. Some technicals are reaching extremes typically correlated with at least good short-term lows, but it is increasingly likely we see a downside washout of 2-3 days first.

PDF: Weekend Report_2026_03_15
VIDEO:

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Internals

Comments made last week still apply:

The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues is at the upper extreme of a level that suggests to be watching for a potentially important low. Ideally, we see a washout early next week accompanied by a negative breadth reading at or below -2000.

I will also add that breadth has closed negative 7 consecutive days. That is very rare.

VIX continues to stay elevated but has not reached any level suggesting capitulation, yet. Notice the price damage so far isn’t nearly as extreme as other recent levels reached when VIX was actually not as elevated as it is currently. It was much more elevated in April, but price had declined by a much larger percentage.

NYA – Profile

Below is the monthly profile view of the NYA.

It provides a fantastic visual description of how vertical the move down in the NYA has been since its recent top, and of the importance of its current level as of Friday’s cash-session close.

It is just above its year low and also a HVN from December and the highs of October and November. This is additional evidence to be alert for at least a short-term low, soon.