Weekend Report for Monday, March 23, 2026
Bottom Line:
From last weekend’s Report:
US indices are all perched right at critical downside levels. Some technicals are reaching extremes typically correlated with at least good short-term lows, but it is increasingly likely we see a downside washout of 2-3 days first.
Well, deja vu all over again. Last week the indices bounced straight up for two days then traded strongly lower into Friday’s close. All US indices closed Friday at or below critical downside levels, below which, if they continue lower, where they stop is a complete guess.
This is a market that is trading off of a historic, panic upside ramp that generated incredibly one-sided sentiment at its peak. What has been remarkable, so far, is that the indices are down only marginally with no (so far) real capitulation event to clear the air. The “correction” has been chop and churn – time.
The chart patterns suggest caution for any immediate bullish positioning. It will take more than a 1-2 day ramp to begin to build a bullish case.
PDF: Weekend Report_2026_03_22
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/TEVFp7QoP1E
Internals
No change:
The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues is at the upper extreme of a level that suggests to be watching for a potentially important low. Ideally, we see a washout early next week accompanied by a negative breadth reading at or below -2000.
VIX continues to stay elevated but has not reached any level suggesting capitulation, yet.
SPX
The SPX is overlooking the abyss.
NDX
The NDX is in a similar position as the SPX.
DOW
Same…
NYA
Same as last week: The NYA is in the abyss. There is no identifiable “good” potential downside target.
RSP
RUT
_________________________________________________________
US Dollar – Weekly
Balance, but at its upper extreme.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
Notes are trending lower. There is no evidence of a low of significance, yet.
Gold
Gold is testing its reaction low. Price action in this area over the next week will be important to watch.
Crude – Weekly
No change:
What crude does on a day-to-day basis is a complete guess and entirely dependent on the situation with Iran.
Bitcoin
BTC is attempting to hold a critical downside level.
