Weekend Report for Monday, March 24, 2025
Bottom Line:
Critical levels in the US stock indices are very clear. The near term direction is not.
Monday will be interesting because the indices are no longer tethered to option pinning for a while.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_03_24
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/T1uKT_QN5j0
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SPX
Upper KRA: 5715; 5773-5812
Lower KRA: 5597; 5505
The SPX formed a Balance Area in last week’s trade, with the net change from the previous week of .50%. I expect we will see considerably greater week over week change by next Friday.
SPX 30m
RSP Weekly (Equal Weight S&P 500)
Upper KRAs: 176; 177-178
Lower KRAs: 172; 168
NDX
Upper KRAs: 19953; 20205-20473
Lower KRAs: 19401; 19152
DOW
Upper KRAs: 42247; 42809-43139
Lower KRAs: 41444; 40817-40608
RUT
Upper KRA: 2084-2104
Lower KRAs: 2039; 2004-1982
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 19662
Lower KRA: 19303; 18823
VIX dropped a bit last week but is not “low”.
NYSE Data – Internals
There is nothing compelling here.
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US Dollar
Continue to favor shorts.
US 10-yr Notes
Notes have formed a Balance Area. Favor the direction of the break.
Gold
Gold continues to make higher highs and lows. Longs MUST be favored.
Crude
Crude has formed a minor Balance Area in a CRITICAL intermediate term KRA. Favor the direction of the break.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is just above a critical intermediate term KRA. It needs to break the lower high-lower low pattern it has been in to restore a bullish case.
