Weekend Report for Monday, March 9, 2026
Bottom Line:
US indices are more “in sync” than at any time over the past several months. All are in corrective phases.
I think we will see at least a short-term low by Wednesday cash open (CPI is reported Thursday at 8:30 AM, EST.), and it could be an important low of intermediate-term duration. Several technical indicators, specifically breadth and VIX, are at levels correlated with at least short-term lows.
PDF Weekend Report_2026_03_09
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/O1X-pyjbJis
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NYSE Cumulative A/D Line
Below is the NYSE Cumulative A/D line and the SPX. This chart would be more congruent if I had placed the NYA, RSP or DOW as the index.
As I have been saying for many months, what this suggests is that any retracement of significance will likely lead to new ATHs in at least one or more of the US indices prior to the end of the Bull Trend.
Internals
The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues is at the upper extreme of a level that suggests to be watching for a potentially important low. Ideally, we see a washout early next week accompanied by a negative breadth reading at or below -2000.
The April 2025 low is an idea of what we might be looking for,
While we haven’t seen a closing -2000 breadth reading, we did get a -2400 breadth reading intraday last Thursday. There is a consistent correlation between at least short-term lows and recent downside breadth readings.
Below is the time frame around the April 2025 low.
VIX closed just below 30 on Friday and it seldom spends much time above this level. Be aware while that is a true statement, it is also true it can spike MUCH higher for short periods of time.
It is difficult to see from this view, but even though VIX spike MUCH higher than 30 during the Covid crash, there were ferocious short-term rallies against the downtrend all the way down.
SPX
The SPX was finally able to close below the 6773 level that had held on several downside probes for months. That will now be an important upside level.
NDX
The NDX is technically at the lower extreme of a Balance Area – it has not broken initiatively lower, yet. This makes a good case for a potential washout next week.
DOW
NYA
The NYA has been (is?) in extreme vertical development
A very undeveloped March Auction in the NYA.
RSP
RUT
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US Dollar – Weekly
Balance.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
Similar to the US Dollar.
Gold
Gold looks like it wants to test its high.
Crude – Weekly
From a few weeks ago: No change: A potential long-term low may have formed.
Now we have “panic” buying. While an important low may be in place. Crude won’t go up at the current rate of change much longer. This is a dangerous market on both sides right now.
Bitcoin
BTC is attempting to hold a critical downside level.
