Weekend Report for Monday, May 12, 2025

Weekend Report for Monday, May 12, 2025

Bottom Line:

Since last Friday (May 2) the performance of the primary US indices:

SPX: -.47%

NDX: -.20%

RSP: +.40%

RUT: -.12%

DOW: -.16%

NYA: -.41%

Only the equal weight S&P closed up for the week, and only by a tiny amount. As you can see, there was very little next change among the indices for the week.

The significance of this is that all of the indices are at or near critical KRAs (inflection points) from where we typically see sharp moves. It is unlikely next week will be as quiet as was this week.

The indices rallied strongly off the April 7 lows in a short period of time. This week was some “digestion” of that very sharp move. It can be considered bullish that the indices have held up with such little retracement. However, in this incredibly hyper-sensitive to news market, it is wise not to make any big directional bets. Levels are very well defined and should be respected.

PDF: Weekend Report_2025_05_11
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/MkLE5s4Jvx0

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SPX

Upper KRA: 5750-5800
Lower KRAs: 5578

The SPX is just below its 200-day MA and an important upper pivot high.

RSP

Upper KRA: 175-177
Lower KRA: 165-163

Same comments apply as for SPX.

NDX:

Upper KRA: 20136-20269
Lower KRA: 19603

Same comments apply as for SPX.

DOW:

Upper KRA: 42530-42827
Lower KRA: 39394-39196

The DOW has not rallied as closely to its critical intermediate term KRA as have the SPX, NDX or RSP.

RUT

Upper KRA: 2042; 2110
Lower KRA: 1976; 1915-1890

New York Composite

Upper KRA: 19563
Lower KRA: 19137; 18862-18740

The NYA is less than 5% from a new ATH.

VIX will increase with a drop; it will decrease if the market moves higher. There is no big “tell” from VIX at the moment.

NYSE Data – Internals

10-day and 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues have rolled over reflecting the churning and lack of momentum in price action of the last week. They will continue to drop on further decline and they will turn back to the upside on further rally and breadth expansion. Similar to the situation with VIX, there is no big “tell” from this perspective at this time.