Weekend Report for Monday, May 4, 2026
Bottom Line:
From last weekend’s update:
The NDX and SPX remain in persistent Vertical Development. The other indices have begun to show more “normal” development. It is a complete guess as to how much higher the NDX and SPX trade without even minor pockets of Balance, but the current rate of change in the two is already historic. I expect some Balance that includes price retracement to begin very soon in the SPX and NDX.
US stock indices, and the SPX and NDX in particular, remain historically vertical. Perfection in all things has been priced into current levels. Situations like the current one are highly susceptible to some out-of-the-blue event that causes at least short-term and potential sharp retracement.
The rate of change in the SPX and NDX is not going to continue. There are already a few subtle signs that more “normal” price action is beginning to occur.
PDF: Weekend Report_2026_05_02
Video: https://youtu.be/N1Fkz3MW2tY
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Internals
Over the last week the NYSE Cumulative A/D Line has formed a minor divergence against higher highs in the SPX. It isn’t significant, but it merits watching.
The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues rolled over three weeks ago and continued trending lower into Friday’s close. Divergences like this can persist for long periods of time, but just as with the NYSE cumulative A/D line, it merits monitoring.
The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues rolled over three weeks ago and continued trending lower into Friday’s close. Divergences like this can persist for long periods of time, but just as with the NYSE cumulative A/D line, it merits monitoring.
SPX Weekly
Five consecutive weeks up and very little rotation.
SPX Quarterly Profile
Another perspective showing the abnormal verticality.
SPX Daily
The SPX closed on its low on Friday, perhaps portending some overdue retracement?
NDX Weekly
Same comments as for the SPX.
NDX Quarterly Profile
NDX Daily
DOW Weekly
The Dow is in a multi-week Balance Area.
Dow Daily
The Dow also closed on its low on Friday.
RUT
The RUT closed in a new ATH.
NYA
The NYA has been lagging for months.
RSP
The RSP is also showing multiple divergences against the higher highs in the SPX and NDX.
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US Dollar Weekly
US 10-yr Notes Weekly
Gold
Crude Weekly
Crude Daily
What crude does on a day-to-day basis is a complete guess and entirely dependent on the situation with Iran.
Bitcoin
BTC is just below a critical inflection point.
