Weekend Report for Monday, October 20, 2025
Bottom Line:
All US indices are in Balance in the intermediate term timeframe. The trend has been relentlessly up and the rate of change into recent highs was unsustainable. Now, the indices have chopped and churned as the vertical move off the April lows is being “digested”. The US indices have corrected time-wise. Retracements have been extremely shallow and immediately bid.
In my opinion the best strategy is to follow the trend in the lower timeframes which will be the earliest tell of the inevitable break out of Balance in which all the indices currently reside. The break is likely to lead to a substantial and sharp move.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_10_19
VIDEO:
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SPX
Below I attempt to break down the current Auction in the SPX.
Note that Friday’s close was right at the upper edge of the HVN (High Volume Node).
ES Monthly Auction
The ES (and NQ) tested the low extreme of the current intermediate-term Auction in Globex trading early Friday morning, then both proceeded to trade higher for the remainder of the session and closed on their highs for the day and on top of the volume node. This is potentially quite bullish, short-term. If it is, we should see immediate follow through to the upside on Monday in the SPX/ES and NDX/NQ.
NDX
DOW
NYA
The NYA has a more bearish view than the SPX, NDX or DOW.
RSP
The RSP also reflects a downside lean.
RUT
VIX continues to trade above 20, reflecting “concern”.
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US Dollar – Weekly
Chop – recent lows are important.
Notes have established higher highs and lows within the larger range.
Gold put in a dramatic high and outside down day on Friday. A short-term high is likely in place.
Weekly lower lows and highs.
Bitcoin
