Weekend Report for Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Bottom Line:
The SPX and NDX have been in multiple degrees of Balance since November and are currently near their respective ATHs.
The NYA is also testing it’s ATH.
The DOW and RUT are in multi-week Balance Areas.
I have been expecting a resolution to the choppy, whippy trade action in all the indices for the past couple of weeks, and was hopeful that Thursday’s ramp higher was the beginning of an initiative trend higher. Friday was a “digestion” day, so we have to wait until next week to see if this rally is “real” or if it is about to fail.
If it is “real” we should very soon see acceleration higher in ALL the indices.
If the indices close below Thursday’s lows it is bearish.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_02_17
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/tRgn1wfaPeg
_____________________________________________________________________
SPX
Upper KRA: 6128
Lower KRA: 6050
From an Auction Market perspective the SPX *should* be in a trending mode. There is room for a little more consolidation around this area, but if this is the beginning of an initiative move higher, the *normal*, would be acceleration up.
NDX
Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 21773-21714.
Same comments apply to NDX as SPX.
DOW
Upper KRA: 45085Lower KRAs: 44347
The DOW is at the apex of a HVN of an increasingly mature Auction structure. I have a difficult time envisioning the break being counter to the next multi-day move in the SPX and NDX.
RUT
Upper KRA: 2320
Lower KRA: 2237
The RUT is also in a very mature structure and due to trend.
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 20332
Lower KRAs: 20033
The NYA is also projecting a sharp trend, soon.
Internals – NYSE Data
Breadth will need to continue to expand positively if the bullish case is to play out.
Cumulative NYSE Adv/Decl
This divergence continues to linger.
The cumulative NYSE adv/decl line is diverging against the higher highs in the SPX (SPY is shown), more evidence suggesting caution.
_____________________________________________________________________________
US Dollar
Between critical intermediate-term levels.
US 10-yr Notes
In general I would continue to favor shorts, but not a great set-up at the moment.
Gold
The trend is up, but its not surprising to see some retracement. The area near 2800 is an important downside level.
Crude
Favor shorts.
Bitcoin
