Weekend Report for Tuesday, May 18, 2026

Bottom Line:

The overall tenor of the market remains bullish. I know it sounds ridiculous on the heels of the strongest rally, maybe ever by some measures, but if anything, it appears more bullish than at any time since the late March low. The DOW broke out of a Balance Area last week and made new print and closing all-time highs, as did the RSP. RUT is just a fraction away from new ATHs. The SPX and NDX are also hovering near their respective ATHs.

Now, it’s most certainly true the US stock market is pricing in total perfection in all things that might go wrong, and that makes it very vulnerable to some out-of-the-blue dramatic short-term drop, but it is highly unlikely any top that occurs in this time frame is THE bull market top. Market Condition has changed; we have seen more day over day rotation over the past couple of weeks as the market has returned to more “normal” price action.

Follow the short-term KRAs.

PDF: Weekend Report_2026_05_24
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/aQJrZwGJXeU

______________________________________________________

Internals

No change: The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues is diverging rather dramatically against the higher highs in the SPX and NDX. This is a “blunt instrument” but it merits notice.  

VIX closed at its lowest level since early February.

SPX Quarterly Auction

Still very minor rotation on the intermediate-term time frame. This is supportive of the idea that while the market may continue higher from here, it is more likely to be more of a grind than a panic ramp.

SPX Daily

NDX Daily

DOW 

The Dow had been lagging but caught up in spectacular fashion last week.

RUT 

NYA

The NYA has been lagging for months. It closed Friday at the upper extreme of a mature Balance Area.

RSP

US Dollar Weekly

The Dollar is in an increasingly mature Balance Area intermediate-term.

US 10-yr Notes Weekly

Gold

Crude Daily

Bitcoin