Weekend Report for Tuesday, May 27, 2025
Bottom Line:
The US stock indices declined last week in the range of 3.26% (NDX) to 4.96% (RUT). These are very normal retracements in bull trends.
Important downside levels are being tested and there is room to the downside without major breaches of those levels.
Internals are not at extremes so there is certainly downside “room” from that perspective. The price/breadth perspective will be key in the early days of next week.
PDF:Weekend Report_2025_05_26
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/QFsroS5-RuU
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SPX
Upper KRA: Best determined at this time on 30m chart
Lower KRAs: 5765; 5661
SPX 30m
How price acts when breadth reaches upper or lower extremes helps determine/confirm the intermediate term trend. IF we are still in a bull trend the SPX should not trade much below Friday’s session low before reversing sharply and resuming the uptrend.
We will be following this closely in real time in the Live Trade Room and updating this in the nightly reports.
SPX Profile
Please review last weekend’s section on the SPX profile.
The potential paths suggested by the profile last week have not changed. The potential upside is to new highs, but it is very unlikely (based on the profle/auction perspective) that we would see acceleration above the highs.
A multi-week heavily rotational market appears to be the most likely form of development. This could include sharp moves in both directions.
SPX Profile Daily
The May Auction is so far a “double distribution”. This means there are two distinct auctions within the larger degree (in this case monthly) range (“distribution”).
There is nothing predictive at this time from this perspective. The gap may or may not be filled.
The profile chart can be extremely helpful in identifying market condition. About the only “predictive” capability it has is that the market is heavily rotational in all time frames. This can be incredibly useful information, especially since the Auction Market Process of Development is in effect in all time frames.
RSP
Upper KRA: 180.24
Lower KRA: 173
NDX:
Upper KRA: 21487
Lower KRAs: 20610
DOW:
Upper KRA: 42843
Lower KRAs: 41344
RUT
Upper KRA: 2116
Lower KRA: 2010
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 19994
Lower KRAs: 19390
VIX is again above 20, but price direction will determine if it goes higher or lower from here.
NYSE Data – Internals
10-day and 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues have rolled over but are not close to extremes.
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US Dollar – Weekly
The US dollar appears to be breaking down in a major way.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
Notes are near the mid-point of a multi-year Balance Area.
Gold
The long-term uptrend is intact.
Crude – Weekly
Levels highlighted on the chart below are important.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin may be getting a bit extended short-term, but the bull trend is firmly intact.
