Weekend Update 2024_08_04

Weekend Report for Monday, August 4

Bottom Line:

The bull market / bear market debate is legitimately in play. IF we are in a bull market the downside from current levels should be fairly limited. Even if we are now in a bear market we will soon see a ferocious rally.

The indices were vertical without hardly a blip from the October 2023 high into a late March top. At the time I pointed out how unusual it was in an election year to have such shallow and short-lived retracements:

https://alexandertrading.com/weekend-update-2024_03_17/

The week following that report began what was until this week the largest retracement since the October 2023 bottom.

The current decline is quite sharp and has occurred in a short time period. Again, I think if we are in a bull market further downside is likely limited.

If we are in a bear market we may see another day or two of “panic” selling, but then a very sharp rally. I’ve mentioned this before, but bear markets, in my opinion, are easier to trade, so that’s a silver lining if we are indeed in a bear market.

There is a lot to discuss.

PDF: Weekend Report_2024_08_04
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/GLSBL58Gtrs

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SPX

Upper KRA: 5447
Lower KRAs: 5191

I’m sure the magic number crowd is out in full force “pinpointing” the 17 different fibonacci levels calculated from recent pivot highs/lows/extensions from where the exact bottom of the current decline will form.The reality is that there is nothing from an Auction Market perspective that might be “support” until the buying tail spike low at 5191. That does not mean the market will go there; it could stop anywhere and bounce.