Weekend Report for Monday, September 9
Bottom Line:
From last weekend’s Report:
The only concern (known) at the moment is NYSE breadth. It must begin to rather dramatically expand for the rally to continue.
Important levels are very clear in all the indices.
Well, breadth collapsed and important downside levels were broken.
All indices closed on their respective lows for the day and week Friday afternoon. There are no good downside levels to point to as potential “support” from an Auction Market perspective; the indices are in elevator shafts that extend down to the early August lows.
Market internals are not yet at extremes, so we could easily see more selling next week.
PDF: Weekend Report_2024_09_09
VIDEO:https://youtu.be/cnzBTPrTxf4
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SPX
Upper KRA: 5524
Lower KRAs: 5381-5342
The SPX broke strongly to the downside from the 10-day Balance Area that has formed coming into last week.
It closed just above a gap level at 5381-5342. Below that level where it might form a low is a guess at this time.
NDX
Upper KRA: 18935
Lower KRAs: 17575-17434
DOW
Upper KRA: 41002
Lower KRA: 40297-40065
RUT
Upper KRAs: 2140
Lower KRAs: 2002-1985
New York Composite
This is an index of every stock listed on the NYSE, so it is a broad composite view.
Upper KRA: 18977
Lower KRA: 17733-17566
Internals – VIX
VIX is reaching levels that in a bull trend suggest a low should be near.
Looking at this chart it seems we would have to see VIX continue to rise rather significantly from current levels if the early August lows are going to be approached.
Internals – NYSE Data
From last weekend’s Report: Breadth will expand if a SPX is “real”. It it doesn’t we’ll likely see a false breakout and the Balance Area range will be retraced in short order.
Neither the 10-day nor the 5-day MA of NYSE advancing issues is yet at an extreme, but something to watch closely if we see more selling next week.
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US 10-yr. Notes
Notes appear ready to test the critical 116’16-117’03 KRA.
US Dollar
No change: Lower lows and highs. Favor shorts.
Gold
Gold is in an increasingly mature Balance Area. Favor the direction of the break.
Crude
Crude is overlooking the abyss.
Bitcoin
A client has been emailing me about Bitcoin and suggesting it’s “different”. It’s not.
Bitcoin trades in an Auction Market. There is nothing about Bitcoin that mandates it has different “rules” regarding Auction Market behavior.
NO CHANGE: Bitcoin has been making lower lows and highs. However, the area below 55,000 keeps being strongly rejected.The 8/15 low near 56218 is the immediate downside critical level for the bullish case.
