The S&P has developed a mature Balance Area in the weekly time frame. We consider the weekly charts to be of intermediate term degree. A close below 1537 signals that a decline is likely in progress of a larger degree than any that has occurred since last fall.

Important: If the Initiative break is to the upside, which would be signaled by a close above 1673.89, the long side should be respected and the S&P could trade a lot higher immediately than most people think. As I am writing this the stock index futures are down in Globex, which, barring deus ex machina during the evening (also known as central bank intervention of some sort), implies yet another rejection of the 1575 area and is evidence the Initiative break is going to be to the downside.