2026 August Daily Reports

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If we are in a bull trend today's lows should hold. KRA's in the cash indices are Wednesday's highs and lows.

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U.S. indices were down again on Tuesday, with the SPX closing down now three consecutive days. It's a little bit unusual, even in a bear trend, for the SPX to close down four consecutive days. Other indices have not been quite as persistently down as the SPX. However the Dow has been dribbling lower and is deep into the elevator shaft created from the ramp that began at the end of July into early August. Tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. we have the FOMC Fed meeting minutes released that could call some short-term volatility but if we are in a bull trend we are likely near a short-term low, at least time-wise.

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US indices had a down day across the board today with all of the indexes down on the day. The largest decline occurred in the SPX, which closed right at its high-volume node. The Dow has been sort of dribbling lower. It is deep into an elevator shaft and where it might stop is a complete guess. The NDX closed on its low but it never got to Friday's low. The Russell has a three-day balance area.  So today's general decline was part of the rotation that we've been seeing during this bull market. Nothing more, nothing less. The fact that we were down today itself is not particularly alarming. There's nothing that happened today that would suggest that this is anything other than a normal digestion, rotational type of price activity.

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Tuesday was a disparate trading day among the U.S. indices. The SPX, Russell, and NDX remain in balance areas, basically digesting the ramp that began at the 729 low. The New York Composite once again closed at an all-time high. The equal-weight S&P closed at an all-time high.

That's the situation as we head into tomorrow morning and the 8:30 a.m. CPI announcement. There is no point in guessing which way the market will move following that report. As usual trading is likely to be extremely volatile, perhaps into and through the opening. Even if a short-term top is formed, leading to some sort of decline larger in price and time than any that we've seen since mid-July, I don't think it will mark the end of the bull market, and it's just as easy to see acceleration into new all-time highs with the SPX and the NDX participating and finally trading in new all-time highs along with the RSP, the New York Composite, and perhaps the Dow.

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There is no change. The indices are hovering in, or around, ATHs. CPI is Wednesday morning and will no doubt create volatility. I used to (incorrectly) assume the day before would be narrow-ranged and quiet, but that is most certainly not always the case. Last Thursday/Friday lows are the short-term downside levels to watch.

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US indices had digestion days. No change to recent comments. If this rally is to going to continue substantially higher retracements should be shallow and short-lived.

I will be out of the office through Monday.

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Monday's trade validated the analysis in the Weekend Update. IF this is going to be a significant Initiative break to the upside, none of the indices should close below Thursday's cash session low. If that happens I will address it at that point in time, but it would likely be immediately bearish. Additionally, the Russell 2000 and the NDX should make a serious run at their old ATHs, immediately.

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