Tomorrow is the next installment of the seemingly never ending saga of: Will the Market Crash or the Dow hit 36,000 by the 4th of July? From a trader’s perspective, at least our perspective, it doesn’t matter. The caveat to that is that believe me, you do not want a market crash. A market top is one thing; a crash quite another. There has only been one market crash in my lifetime, the dramatic drop in 1987. And yes, I was trading and was short that day – and lost money, which is a great story many have heard and I’ll re-tell again at some point. It perfectly illustrates the difference between being the lucky Random Fool and a professional trader.
I’ll give a complete update in the pre-mkt. report but some general observations as of 11:30 PM Thursday evening:
Closes by all four indices below their respective Thursday lows is an initial signal of a top of some degree. If the S&P / ES trades to a new high and closes on its low it is an initial signal of a top of some degree. It is entirely possible the S&P will close above the recent high and trade considerably higher before a top of swing trade proportion forms.
US Notes and Bonds held downside KRAs and at this point look like they will test or exceed their respective recent highs.
No change to DBSA comments regarding currencies, grains, or crude.
Copper formed a selling tail on the 30m chart, but it can have wild swings at night, so who knows what we’ll find in the AM?
Gold continues to grind relentlessly higher but with little “conviction”
See you in the morning!