Mid-week Update 2024_04_10

Bottom Line:

The indices are between levels as they tread water and wait for the next round of economic numbers beginning tomorrow at 8:30 AM, EST.  

From the March 25 Weekend Update:

Retracements since the late December top have a magnitude from 1.66% to 2.52%. IF the SPX is in process of another minor retracement the “target” for a similar magnitude retracement as has been occurring is 5172-5129

A close below 5129 would be “something different” and would merit further analysis. 

Last Thursday’s decline measured 2.24% from the April 1 print high to last Thursday’s print low, just slightly less than the 2.53% decline that occurred on February 13 that is so far the largest decline in the SPX since last October’s low. It bottomed in the KRA suggested in the March 25th update.

CPI on Wednesday morning at 8:30 AM, EST and Initial Jobless Claims Thursday at 8:30 AM, EST are likely catalysts for the next directional move.   

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SPX

Upper KRA: 5265; 5303-5321; 5367-5383
Lower KRA: 5146-5105

SPX Profile 

A move to/through one extreme of another is likely by the end of the week.

NDX

Upper KRA: 18465
Lower KRA: 17877-17758

DOW

Upper KRA: 39045; 39890
Lower KRAs: 38612-38451

RUSSELL 2000

Upper KRA: 2136
Lower KRA: 2047; 2009

US 10-yr Notes

Lower lows and highs. Favor shorts.

US Dollar

No change: I don’t see any well-defined opportunity. Lot of chop.

Gold

Favor longs but Gold is extended.

Crude

No change: Crude continues to chop higher.