Weekend Report for Monday, December 29

Weekend Report for Monday, December 27, 2025

Bottom Line:

We’re in the final few yards of the backstretch of 2025. Volume will be extremely light. BUT…volatility could be quite high, especially Wednesday.

Seasonality is positive into the first week of 2026. Please understand “seasonality” is a statistical tendency calculated over many years; it is not a sure thing.

Levels are well-defined.

PDF: Weekend Report_2025_12_27
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/FYxME1eiHQ8

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Let’s start with the NDX. It has led the US stock market for the past several years and in particular since the April low – until the last month.

It has been creeping higher over the past week as the other indices continue to trade in and around new ATHs. Its levels are very well defined.

The monthly Auction in the NDX has gone nowhere for two months. It is trading right at the other cusp of the December Auction. It is 1.86% from a new ATH (see chart above). It is at an inflection point from two perspectives: 1) It is very close to an ATH, 2) It is trading in a HVN in a mature Balance Area.

This suggests being alert for a potentially VERY sharp move.

VALUE in the daily Auction of the NDX has been moving persistently higher over the past week.

SPX

The SPX is in a clear uptrend. A great guideline for “support” when a market is in a strong uptrend is that the previous day’s low should hold. A trade below the second day back often signals the uptrend has ended and that market has either reversed or has entered a phase of Balance.

There is no “resistance” above the recent print high.

DOW

Same comments apply.

NYA

Same…

RSP

The RSP is in a different structure than the other indices. It has traded in a narrow range Balance Area for the past eight trade days. It has closed above its HVN for the past two days. It *should* begin to trade sharply higher. If it trades below 193 it is likely to trade sharply lower.

RUT

Dead in the middle of critical levels.

Cumulative NYSE Advance/Decline Line

This continues to make new ATHs. I don’t think we see a bull market top until there are significant divergences between the NYSE A/D line and most of the major US indices.