Weekend Report for Monday, February 10, 2025
Bottom Line:
Current price structure tells the tale. It simply boils down to this: Friday’s cash session highs must be closed above by all major US indices (SPX, NDX, DOW, RUT and NYA) to restore a bullish outlook.
Friday’s price action involved critical upper KRAs being rejected and all the indices closed on their lows. The SPX and NDX in particular are in very mature, multi-month Balance Areas. A trend beyond the upper or lower extreme of these Balance Areas is increasingly likely, making Friday’s decline particularly important.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_02_10
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/g-vAAF_HaZw
__________________________________________________________________________
SPX
Upper KRA: 6100
Lower KRA: 5961
SPX Profile
No change: The SPX is in an increasingly mature 3-mth. Auction. It traded to its upper extreme on Friday and then sharply reversed. It is unlikely to hang around current levels for long. I am expecting a sharp multi-day move to begin soon.
NDX
Upper KRA: 21949
Lower KRA: 21308; 20966
Same comments apply to NDX as SPX.
DOW
Upper KRA: 45081
Lower KRAs: 43885
RUT
Upper KRA: 2322
Lower KRA: 2257-2221
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 20239
Lower KRAs: 19871;19644
Internals – NYSE Data
No change: Both 5-day and 10-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues have rolled over from upper extremes. Breadth will need to expand positively if the bullish case is to play out.
Cumulative NYSE Adv/Decl
This divergence continues to linger.
The cumulative NYSE adv/decl line is diverging against the higher highs in the SPX (SPY is shown), more evidence suggesting caution.
_______________________________________________________________________________
US Dollar
Between critical intermediate-term levels.
US 10-yr Notes
In general I would continue to favor shorts.
Gold
The trend is up.
Crude
Crude continues to sell off. I would favor shorts, but a bounce could occur at any time.
Bitcoin
