Weekend Report for Monday, February 23, 2026
Bottom Line:
For practical purposes we currently have two distinct market states, or Market Conditions, delineated by the SPX and NDX and RUT, then the DOW, NYA and the RSP. The DOW and SPX have been in Balance for months – the RUT for weeks, but closer to its ATH than the SPX or NDX. The DOW, NYA and RSP have been in Vertical Development since the November low.
What is fascinating is that both the Balance of the SPX/NDX/RUT and the Vertical Development of the DOW/NYA/RSP are in “mature” stages of their respective Market Condition.
Since markets are in constant cycling from one condition (Balance) to another (Vertical Development), this sets up quite an interesting situation. The potential scenarios for a resolution to the current disparity among these two sets of US indices are numerous.
I try very hard not to predict because it interferes with my trading. My strategy for trading the current markets is to honor the price action of the instrument I am trading. I will “predict” that we are soon going to see a strong trend that lasts more than a day or two.
Pay close attention to the levels highlighted in this report. They are updated daily in the Members section.
PDF: Weekend Report_2026_02_22
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/kiW05OIpI_4
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NYSE Cumulative A/D Line
Below is the NYSE Cumulative A/D line and the SPX. This chart would be more congruent if I had placed the NYA, RSP or DOW as the index.
As I have been saying for many months, what this suggests is that any retracement of significance will likely lead to new ATHs in at least one or more of the US indices prior to the end of the Bull Trend.
SPX
NDX
The NDX is by far the weakest of the indices. Last week’s low (24380) is critical. A close above 25385 could be a catalyst for acceleration higher.
DOW
NYA
RSP
RUT
VIX
VIX remains elevated with the indices either going nowhere or higher. This is another element that points to sharp change, soon.
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US Dollar – Weekly
No change: The Dollar dipped below 96 and immediately bungee jumped back above it. That is obviously an extremely key level that for now has been defended by Big Money.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
The 111’09 level is critical.
Gold
Gold is whipping around its 50% retracement of the recent “crash”. Based on current structure, I have no confident directional opinion.
Crude – Weekly
No change: A potential long-term low may have formed.
Bitcoin
BTC spiked into a lower HVN and so far hasn’t been able to generate any significant upside momentum. The recent spike low is critical to a long-term bullish thesis for BTC.
