Weekend Report for Monday, January 13, 2025
Bottom Line:
From last weekend’s update:
The US indices have very clear critical downside levels. If the primary US indices all close below those levels it dramatically increases the probability that a bear market may have begun.
The indices closed below (SPX, Dow) or right in (NDX, RUT, NYA) critical downside levels.
There is nothing close to extreme downside technical readings. This doesn’t mean the indices can’t rally from here, but it does suggest caution thinking anything resembling a significant low could be in place.
PDF: Weekend Report_2025_01_13
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/K3APlNL0z8M
_________________________________________________________
SPX
Upper KRA: 5932; 6022
Lower KRA: 5782; 5705-5670
NDX
Upper KRA: 21243; 21713
Lower KRA: 18861
DOW
Upper KRA: 43372
Lower KRAs: 42138; 41633
RUT Weekly
Upper KRA: 2296
Lower KRA: 2204-2167
New York Composite
Upper KRA: 19436
Lower KRAs: 18865
Internals – VIX
VIX closed on its highs for the week. It will likely reach 25+ if we see the 5700 area.
Internals – NYSE Data
The 10-day and 5-day MAs of NYSE advancing issues have rolled over but are not yet at downside extremes.
____________________________________________________________________________________
US Dollar
No change: Favor longs.
US 10-yr Notes
Notes are getting crushed. Could find a little support here, but would favor shorts.
Gold
No change: Between important levels of two degrees.
Crude
Crude thoroughly tested recent downside levels. There appears to be a bullish sequence of higher highs and lows in place.
Bitcoin
If 97000 breaks there is nothing from an Auction Market perspective until near 74425.
