Weekend Report for Monday, June 22

Weekend Report for Monday, June 29

U.S. indices all continue to close at or near all-time highs. The SPX and NDX and the other U.S. indices continue to close at or near all-time highs. The Russell 2000 closed at a new all-time weekly high. The Dow closed at a new all-time weekly high, however it closed on its low for the week. The Equal Weight S&P also made a new all-time print high on a weekly basis but closed on its low for the week. The NDX closed at a new all-time weekly high. The SPX did not close at a new all-time weekly high but closed just above the midpoint of last week’s range.

In this week’s report the theme is that rotation is likely to be the order of the day even if the market continues higher into the next quarter.

I want to begin this weekend’s report encouraging you to review last weekend’s Report, in particular the first part where we discussed the market profile graph and the Auction Market Process. What you see below is a continuation of the information presented in last week’s report. The second quarter of 2026 is coming to an end and the analog alluded to in last weekend’s report continues to play out very closely. The third quarter of 2025 was certainly definitively bullish, with the SPX closing near its high for the quarter; however, look at how heavily rotational that quarter was. My best guess is that the best case for 2026 is something similar. We may go higher but if we do so, it is going to be in a dramatically more rotational fashion than what we saw from the beginning of the second quarter into where we are. Again, I want to emphasize “best case”. It’s quite possible that we have a deeper rotation but we will defer to the daily charts for those signals.

PDF: Weekend Report_2026_06_22
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/qVRe5Mn96fE

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Time Regulates Price – Peter Steidylmayer

It was inevitable the rate of change would slow even if the trend continued.

From last weekend’s Report and no change : A Few Practical Trading Considerations

The persistent, almost panic bid in the indices, and even more so in individual sectors (SMH was up 79% from 3/30 to 6/3 – some of its components were up even more), is almost certainly over. These stocks may be great long term investments, but if your time horizon is weeks to months the reward to risk at this time is likely not favorable.

Swing trading may be a better strategy as more digestion of the ramp takes place, even if the indices are persistently higher from here.

It is unlikely we see the 5-6-7 day streaks of straight up; there is more likely to be more day-to-day rotation and pockets of multi-day Balance – both in the indices and in individual stocks.

Intraday trade is likely to become more predominantly rotational.

It is increasingly likely we see a retracement greater in time and magnitude than any that has occurred since the March low. The 2025 analog is the best case scenario.

SPX Daily