Weekend Report for Monday, March 29, 2026
Bottom Line:
From last weekend’s Report:
…This is a market that is trading off of a historic, panic upside ramp that generated incredibly one-sided sentiment at its peak. What has been remarkable, so far, is that the indices are down only marginally with no (so far) real capitulation event to clear the air. The “correction” has been chop and churn – time.
The chart patterns suggest caution for any immediate bullish positioning. It will take more than a 1-2 day ramp to begin to build a bullish case…
Last Thursday and Friday we started seeing something resembling (relatively mild, so far) “panic”. I still do not think we’ve seen the Big Dump that usually puts in a really good low.
VIX did manage to close over 30, and it typically does not stay over 30 for long, though it can spike dramatically higher for a few days after reaching VIX. I go over in detail previous VIX 30+ levels in this weekend’s video.
PDF: Weekend Report_2026_03_29
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/o3fVZvpHREU
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Internals
We have not seen a closing NYSE -2000 breadth reading in ten months, which is the longest stretch in at least five years. Perhaps the heavily rotational nature of the market over the past year is a reason. I do not recall a significant correction ending without at least one such occurrence (7/27/23-10/27/23 had one).
VIX finally managed to close above 30. This is an important marker and indicates we could be in the early stage of a climatic decline that last for 2-3 days. Historically VIX does not stay above 30 for long, but it can launch MUCH higher from here for a short period of time.
SPX
From an Auction Market perspective, there is very little potential support below Friday’s low. However, another day or two of hard selling like Thursday and Friday and we will likely see at least a short-term low.
If a bounce begins now, the gap from Friday is the initial upper inflection point.
NDX
The NDX is in a similar position as the SPX.
DOW
Same…
NYA
It is notable that the NYA could not take out the previous pivot low as did the SPX and NDX. Is this a bullish divergence? There is no way to know until at least Monday in the cash session.
RSP
The equal weight S&P suddenly looks more closely correlated with the S&P after months of out performance.
RUT
The RUT is in a similar position as the NYA
US Dollar – Weekly
Balance, but at its upper extreme. This level has been tested several times. A close above this level is bullish.
US 10-yr Notes – Weekly
No change: Notes are trending lower. There is no evidence of a low of significance, yet.
Gold
Gold has had a dramatic drop and is now in a Balance Area. The direction of the break will be interesting.
Crude – Weekly
No change:
What crude does on a day-to-day basis is a complete guess and entirely dependent on the situation with Iran.
Bitcoin
BTC is in a Balance Area. It is potentially quite bearish that it appears to have failed in an attempt at an upside breakout.
