Weekend Report for Monday, October 13

Weekend Report for Monday, October 13, 2025

Bottom Line:

PDF: Weekend Report_2025_10_12
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/7SwbAAW22js

At a minimum we’ve likely seen a change in character of the Bull Market. The relentless grind and consistent dip-buying panic came to its inevitable conclusion with Friday’s drop. Regardless of whether or not we were/are in a bull market, what we saw off the April low was almost unprecedented in velocity and duration with so little retracement along the way.

My guess is that was not the end of the bull market. We can’t know that except in hindsight. I do know that Friday’s rate of change is highly unlikely to continue for more than another day or two.

We are likely to see a low sometime next week and then a very dramatic rally. Ideally we will ultimately see whatever low is put in next week tested. I thought the same thing in April at that low, too. That “test” 4 days and only retraced about 50% of the initial rally, proving to be a precursor of the price action ramp into Friday’s high. So, we have to be open and prepared for anything – as we should have learned by now (note to self), leaning on “typical” can be a mistake.

Be open to market activity and the Auction Market process.

Below are some important previous highs for perspective. I have traded into and through all of them. Please note the deep retracements almost all show into the ultimate low. When the retracements were negligible those declines ended relatively quickly – within days.

1987 Crash

2000 Bull Market Top

This was a whippy, protracted process.

2007 Bull Market Top

Certainly not a straight line.

2015 High

2018 High

2020 Bull Market Top

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SPX Profile

We are trading Auction Markets. “Market Profile” was developed to specifically help identify Auction Market condition. The Auction Market Process of development is in effect in all degrees of time. Nothing is more consistent or objective than this perspective. Let’s run through timeframes from long-term to present.

Yearly Auctions

Each profile unit below is one Auction. This is a great view of the range (distribution) of 2025 to date. From an Auction perspective starting on January 1 in a given year is irrelevant.

Quarterly Auctions

The more granular we go down in timeframe the more immediately relevant are the levels.

Monthly Auctions

Daily Auctions

Future Path

Friday’s trade was extraordinarily one-sided in the intraday timeframe. While the SPX and other indices may well sell-off more on Monday, I expect more two-sided trade to begin very early next week. I think that even if we are in short-term waterfall decline mode, we will see violent intraday rallies until things settle out a bit.

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SPX Daily

Upper KRAs: 6625-6609 (minor HVN); 6657
Lower KRA: 6571-6531

RSP

Upper KRAs: 187
Lower KRA: 185-184; 183-182

NDX:

Upper KRA: 24697
Lower KRA: 23901-23701; 23034-22665

DOW

Upper KRA: 46064
Lower KRA: 44983-44785; 44582-44450

RUT

Upper KRAs: 2440
Lower KRA: 2392-2368; 2339-2328

New York Composite

Upper KRA: 21355
Lower KRAs: 20916-20819; 20554-20449

Internals

This perspective is most useful in helping to identify potential lows. As we have seen for most of the past two years and especially the past five months, it’s useless in identifying tops. There is nothing extreme here yet, but now we can start paying attention.

Breadth closed at -1874 on Friday, remarkably unable to close below -2000.