The US Stock market is still a confused market that had wide day-to-day swings last week but still lacks directional conviction.
The NDX looks like it is on the verge of an upside breakout, while the SPX, RUT and DOW continue to test, but are unable to break above intermediate-term KRAs.
VIX and Breadth continue to give mixed signals on a day-today basis, reflecting the manic/panic price day-to-day price action.
More detail in the video (link at the bottom), but levels are obvious.
The SPX is between intermediate term critical levels. A close above 4200 brings 4300 into play.
There is no “resistance” in the NDX until near the 2022 August high. A close below last week’s low would be bearish.
The RUT in between intermediate term critical levels. A close above 1813 could be very bullish.
As with the RUT and SPX, the DOW is between critical levels.
Breadth has been exceedingly weak, typically a poor sign for a bull case. However, it is a chicken or egg thing. All that has to happen to “erase” this divergence is for big buyers to start pressing buy buttons. This is why it is so important to watch the RUT and its upper KRA.
Similar to breadth at the moment, one can make a totally rational bull or bear case based on the current position of the VIX.
US 10-Yr Notes
The trend is definitively down.
There is a very significant selling tail formed on the daily chart. It brings the immediately bullish case into question.
The HUGE buying tail suggests favoring longs, but there is no “graceful” entry at the moment.