Bottom Line:
The US Stock market is still a confused market that had wide day-to-day swings last week but still lacks directional conviction.
The NDX looks like it is on the verge of an upside breakout, while the SPX, RUT and DOW continue to test, but are unable to break above intermediate-term KRAs.
VIX and Breadth continue to give mixed signals on a day-today basis, reflecting the manic/panic price day-to-day price action.
Weekly Indices
More detail in the video (link at the bottom), but levels are obvious.
SPX Daily
The SPX is between intermediate term critical levels. A close above 4200 brings 4300 into play.
NDX
There is no “resistance” in the NDX until near the 2022 August high. A close below last week’s low would be bearish.
RUT
The RUT in between intermediate term critical levels. A close above 1813 could be very bullish.
DOW
As with the RUT and SPX, the DOW is between critical levels.
Internals
Breadth has been exceedingly weak, typically a poor sign for a bull case. However, it is a chicken or egg thing. All that has to happen to “erase” this divergence is for big buyers to start pressing buy buttons. This is why it is so important to watch the RUT and its upper KRA.
VIX
Similar to breadth at the moment, one can make a totally rational bull or bear case based on the current position of the VIX.
US 10-Yr Notes
Between levels.
US Dollar
The trend is definitively down.
Gold
There is a very significant selling tail formed on the daily chart. It brings the immediately bullish case into question.
Crude
The HUGE buying tail suggests favoring longs, but there is no “graceful” entry at the moment.
Click here for this week’s VIDEO