Bottom Line:
Closes by all four US primary trading indices above Friday’s session highs are needed to confirm last week’s lows are likely to hold for the intermediate term.
Closes by all four US primary trading indices below last week’s lows opens up the potential for more accelerated selling.
The bearish case is that the indices spent Wed.-Fri. working off “oversold” and will resume the downtrend early next week. The bullish case is the indices have formed an important intermediate term low.
PDF: Weekend Report_2023_10_01
SPX
Upper KRAs: 4333; 4374-4401
Lower KRA: 4238
NDX
Upper KRA: 14906-14969
Lower KRA: 14411
RUT
Upper KRAs: 1809; 1844
Lower KRAs: 1761; 1747-1694
DOW
Upper KRA: 33885-34013
Lower KRAs: 33306; 32827-32583
Internals
NYSE data is hovering around the upper cusp of downside extreme, but is not at bell-ringing levels for lows.
US 10-yr Notes
US 10-yr Notes and 30-yr Bonds have been in a free-fall. The trend is down, but I suggest going to a lower time frame and looking for reversal signals.
US Dollar
I don’t see a great reward/risk set-up, but I am watching this contract closely.
Gold
The next potential “support” from an Auction Market perspective is 1824-1810.
Crude
Crude is trading between important intermediate term levels.
